2025 began with many new “wildcards,” and if we add Trump’s latest statements targeting Canada, Panama, and Greenland, we understand that any attempt to predict the markets is completely meaningless.

Not only is there no end in sight to geopolitical tensions, but the conditions for new ones are being created. 
To start with “new unknowns”, the recent US Department of Defense listing of Cosco Shipping as a “Chinese military company” has introduced major uncertainty into global shipping markets. As the world’s largest shipowner, Cosco’s fleet of over 1,400 vessels represents a significant market presence across multiple sectors - they dominate both dry bulk and tanker segments while maintaining the fourth-largest container fleet globally. Their influence extends beyond vessel ownership into port operations and shipbuilding.
While this designation doesn’t automatically trigger sanctions, it creates a significant deterrent for US companies considering business relation- ships with Cosco. This could potentially disrupt established trading patterns and relationships. The implications of any future restrictions on Cosco’s operations would be far-reaching, given their substantial market share and integral role in global maritime trade.
The market is now looking closely to see how this situation develops,
as any constraints on an operator of Cosco’s size would likely cause significant disruption to global shipping patterns and potentially reshape established trade flows.
The outlook for the dry bulk shipping markets in the first quarter of 2025 is mixed. Some analysts are optimistic, citing factors like limited transit through the Suez Canal and potential Chinese fiscal stimulus, which could support tonne-mile demand and freight rates. However, others are more cautious, pointing to the seasonal slowdown due to winter and the Lunar New Year celebrations, as well as the continued supply-demand imbalance and that the stimulus has not produced nor will produce significant results. However, we shall await to see how the post-Lunar New Year period that traditionally impacts shipping demand and how significantly Infrastructure and major construction projects will drive demand for iron ore and other bulk materials. Trump administration is just around the corner as from Jan 20th the new administration is anxiously awaited as to how this will behave this time round. 
New tariffs, revival of the trade wars, a serious attempt to undermine Chinese economy and also the Trump administration as to how the two ongoing wars and conflicts will continue. Some say that the termination of Russia-Ukraine war will have direct impacts in both Dry and Tanker markets. 
A peace settlement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict could fundamentally reshape global oil shipping patterns. Currently, sanctions have forced Russian oil to travel extended routes to Asian markets, while Europe has had to source oil from distant suppliers like the US and Middle East, creating artificially high ton-mile demand. If sanctions were lifted, Russian oil could resume shorter, direct routes to European markets, significantly reducing overall tanker demand. 
The market would likely experience a complex transition period. Russian oil production could stabilize without sanctions constraints, while Ukrainian export infrastructure could be restored. This normalization could reduce the geopolitical risk premium in oil prices. The shipping market would also transform - war risk insurance premiums would drop, and the current two-tier market would dissolve as “shadow fleet” operations decrease. 
However, this transition poses challenges for vessels that have been operating in the shadow fleet. Many of these ships may struggle to re-enter conventional trades due to their inability to meet standard safety requirements and pass stringent vetting procedures. This could create
a distinct division in the fleet, with some vessels permanently excluded from mainstream trading patterns despite the return to peace.
The net effect would be a significant reduction in inefficient trading pat- terns that currently support tanker earnings, leading to a more tradition- al, competitive market structure - though one that might exclude vessels that have operated under sanctions.
Under a peace agreement, Ukraine’s reconstruction would create a surge in demand for bulk shipping across multiple sectors. The scale of infra- structure rebuilding would require enormous quantities of construction materials - particularly steel for buildings, bridges, ports and railways. This would significantly boost seaborne trade of both iron ore and coking coal needed for steel production. Additionally, reconstruction would
drive substantial cement and clinker imports, along with aggregates and specialized materials for rebuilding roads and power facilities.
Beyond infrastructure, Ukraine’s vital agricultural sector would need comprehensive restoration. This includes rebuilding destroyed grain
silos and port facilities, importing new farming equipment to replace destroyed machinery, and bringing in fertilizers to restore agricultural productivity. Once this agricultural infrastructure is rebuilt, Ukraine could resume its role as a major grain exporter, providing another boost to dry bulk shipping demand.
The combination of infrastructure rebuilding and agricultural restoration would create multiple layers of sustained demand for the dry bulk ship- ping sector, potentially lasting several years as reconstruction progresses. This could provide significant support for vessel employment and freight rates across multiple bulk carrier segments. 
*PRESIDENT OF THE HELLENIC SHIPBROKERS ASSOCIATION